Brookfield, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

494
FXUS63 KMKX 240943
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
343 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitterly cold wind chills between 20 and 30 below continue
  through mid-day areawide. Wind chills as low as 35 below
  continue through sunrise in east-central Wisconsin.

- A lake effect snow band will come close to the southeast
  Wisconsin shore late tonight into Sunday afternoon. If the
  snow band comes ashore, accumulating snow would be possible
  from Milwaukee and points south.

- Additional periods of wind chills in the 10 to 20 below range
  continue during the overnight periods into next week. Cold
  Weather Advisories are possible Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today through Sunday Night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A broad area of high pressure is centered
over the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning, resulting in
variable to light northwesterly winds over southern Wisconsin. With
skies remaining mostly clear through the first half of the
overnight, efficient radiational cooling has occurred in the
presence of the advancing surface high, with the majority of
locations reporting air temperatures in the teens below zero as of 3
AM CST. While far lighter relative to yesterday, the variable to
light northwesterly winds are combining with the frigid air
temperatures to support widespread wind chills in the -20 to -30
range early this morning. Readings as low as -35 have been reported
in east-central Wisconsin, where northwesterly winds have remained a
touch stronger. The aforementioned wind chills will continue through
this morning, with cold weather headlines remaining in effect until
Noon CST across all of southern Wisconsin. Broad high pressure will
continue to build over the northern CONUS today, with two
defined/closed areas of high pressure forming over the Northeast &
Upper Mississippi Valley this evening. With Lake Michigan positioned
between the two surface highs, convergent low level winds will allow
for development of a lake effect snow band over central parts of the
lake tonight. The snow band will work west Sunday morning, pulling
near southeast Wisconsin before moving away Sunday afternoon &
evening. If the snow band makes it on shore, it would pose some
potential for accumulating snow from Milwaukee and points south. A
much stronger area of low pressure will move from the Southeast into
the Ohio Valley Sunday morning & afternoon, bringing small chances
for light snow or flurries south of I-94 & US-18. Minimal if any
accumulation is expected in this activity.

Rest of Overnight through This Morning: Headline-level wind chills
will continue through this morning areawide. Given ongoing obs &
short term forecast trends, have thus maintained all headlines
through their scheduled end times in the overnight update. Extreme
Cold Warning thus remains in effect through 6 AM CST in east-central
Wisconsin, and will be replaced by a Cold Weather Advisory until 12
PM CST following the 6 AM CST expiration time. Everywhere else, a
Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 12 PM CST. Continue to
dress in layers if needing to be outside through this morning.

Tonight through Sunday: Will be monitoring for some snow potential
(particularly after midnight) as a lake effect snow band evolves
over western Lake Michigan & a storm system passes south of the
region. If dry low level air can be overcome, the larger storm
system could bring some light flurries or snow showers to areas
mainly south of I-94 & US-18, with minimal (if any) accumulation
expected. A more impactful scenario could materialize if the
aforementioned lake effect snow band makes it onshore in
southeastern Wisconsin, however, as it would pose greater potential
for enhanced hourly snowfall rates & accumulation from Milwaukee and
points south. Whether the band makes it ashore remains highly
uncertain as of this forecast, with available model solutions
ranging from the band remaining over the lake to coming on land for
multiple hours. However far the band makes it, anticipate that it
will make its closest pass to southeast Wisconsin between ~6 AM-2 PM
Sunday, with low level winds pushing it east later Sunday afternoon.
Given the wide range of potential outcomes regarding the lake effect
band, have held off on any headlines in the overnight forecast, but
will be closely watching trends through today. If a scenario
favoring accumulating snow becomes favored, Winter Weather
Advisories may become necessary.

Sunday Night: Anticipate widespread wind chills between -10 and -20.
Will be monitoring for potential Cold Weather Advisories in later
forecasts, as probabilistic guidance is indicating increasing
potential (60% or greater) for wind chills colder than -20 by
daybreak Monday morning.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Monday through Friday:

Overall a pretty boring long term here. The upper level pattern is
dominated by ridging in the western CONUS and a trough across the
eastern CONUS. Under this pattern the central CONUS and Great Lakes
Region will have 500 mb lows and shortwaves pivoting down from
Manitoba and Saskatchewan before these lows kick out to the Atlantic
coast. The upper levels will be a juxtaposed with sfc, as high
pressure systems move into the Plains, Great Lakes Region, and Ohio
River Valley. What this translates to is overall is weak flow a the
sfc, more cold/dry air moving in and weak lift aloft. The weak lift
aloft will struggle to overcome the low dewpoints (moisture) and
subsidence at the sfc.

The main times to note will be Tuesday with the passage of a cold
front and Wednesday with some limited moisture return and sfc
convergence. Tuesday dry air looks to win out so as the cold front
passes. Little to not POPS with this front, but it will bring a
return of CAA (thankfully this too will be weak and mostly usher in
drier air). For Wednesday, there will be shortwave trough aloft
moving down from Canada, but the one discrepancy is what will be
occuring at the surface. Guidance is fairly split here on the
strength of the sfc high that will be parked over the Great Lakes
and Plains. Some deterministic and ensemble members have a mid level
shortwave providing a bit more lift, but the overall lift is weak
and moisture is low. Kept the average among guidance which has 20%
chance POPs or less, but overall confidence is low on anything
overcoming the low level dry air. If we do get precip, temperatures
will be cold enough for snow and accumulations will be low with
little impact. The only other thing worth noting in the extended is
temperatures will slowly climb up. Highs in the single digits Monday
will be in the teens by midweek and looking just beyond the extended
shows a glimmer of highs in the 20s.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR flight categories prevail through the majority of the period at
all southern Wisconsin terminals. Currently building in from the
Upper Mississippi Valley, high pressure will move across the region
today, maintaining the weakening trend in winds that is already
ongoing early this morning. Weak low pressure remains forecast to
develop over southern Lake Michigan this evening through tonight,
which will bring a slight increase in northerly winds nearing the
end of the period. Expect winds to be strongest in east-central and
southeast Wisconsin. Affiliated with said low, a lake effect snow
band is forecast to develop over western Lake Michigan this evening.
The band should remain over the open waters of Lake Michigan through
the majority of the overnight hours, though it could approach
southeast Wisconsin near & after daybreak Sunday. Will thus be
monitoring trends for potential -SN mentions at southeast Wisconsin
aerodromes in later forecasts. A much larger area of low pressure
will move from the southeastern United States to the Ohio River
Valley during the day Sunday, bringing increasing low-mid level
clouds to southern Wisconsin. Could see some -SN from this system to
the south of I-94 & US-18, though low forecast confidence has
precluded any mentions in the 06Z update. Will continue to monitor
trends over coming updates. Thickening low level clouds will
accompany the passing area of low pressure, with CIGs expected to
remain at/above FL030 at this time.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Winds will continue to taper across Lake Michigan today as 1040 mb
high pressure moves in from the west. Wave heights will likewise
decrease with wind speeds, resulting in rapidly diminishing heavy
freezing spray potential through sunrise. The Heavy Freezing Spray
Warning will thus expire as scheduled at 3 AM CST this morning. Low
pressure of 1034 mb remains forecast to form over the southern
waters today, bringing lake effect snow potential to the southern
half of Lake Michigan from this afternoon through tonight. The low`s
development will bring increasing northeast winds tonight through
Sunday. Winds are expected to remain below gale thresholds.

Winds will trend northwesterly to westerly Sunday night into Monday
as 1002 mb low pressure moves into the northeastern United States
and 1040 mb high pressure builds into the central Great Plains. A
brief period of southwest winds is forecast Monday evening/night as
1036 mb high pressure builds into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will
then shift back to west-northwesterly Tuesday morning as 1032 mb
high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Periods of 25-
30 knot gusts are anticipated from Sunday night through Tuesday
morning, with a few gusts approaching gale force possible over
southern Lake Michigan Monday night. Will continue to monitor trends
for possible headlines in coming forecasts. The breezier conditions
will be accompanied by areas of moderate to heavy freezing spray
Sunday night into Tuesday. A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch has been
issued between 6 PM CST Sunday and 6 PM CST Tuesday given this
potential.

Increasing winds and waves will likely lead to Small Craft Advisory
conditions in nearshore zones Sunday evening into Monday morning. A
brief lull in conditions is possible Monday afternoon, prior to
advisory-level conditions returning Monday night through Tuesday.
Headlines will likely become necessary during this portion of the
period in coming forecasts. Winds and waves will subside through the
day Wednesday, with additional Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Cold Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060 until 6 AM Saturday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060 until noon Saturday.

     Cold Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
     WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072
     until noon Saturday.

LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Watch...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
     LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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